Mon, Dec 28, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Los Angeles Kings 5, Vancouver Canucks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 116 | 210 | 212 | 538 |
| VAN | 09 | 09 | 09 | 027 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:33LAKTyler ToffoliGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 1:57LAKDerek ForbortAssists: Trevor Lewis · Deflected, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 11:57LAKBrayden McNabbAssists: Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.02 xG3–0
- P3 5:55LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Anze Kopitar, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–0
- P3 12:56LAKTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Deflected, 0.17 xG5–0
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:31VANAlex Biega: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:31LAKBrayden McNabb: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:31VANAlex Biega: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:41VANAndrey Pedan: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:41LAKJordan Nolan: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:08LAKBrayden McNabb: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:08VANBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:45LAKDrew Doughty: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:45VANBo Horvat: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:36LAKTanner Pearson: Holding2 min
- P1 18:25LAKJordan Weal: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:22VANDerek Dorsett: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:07LAKDerek Forbort: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:53LAKJake Muzzin: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:18VANAlexandre Burrows: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Shore – Pearson10:01
xG 0.84–0.32 (72%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Lucic – Toffoli12:42
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 12–4goals 3–0
- Brown – Lewis – Andreoff11:31
xG 0.54–0.31 (63%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Nolan – Weal – Mersch8:16
xG 0.16–0.20 (44%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcBain – Muzzin8:01
xG 0.72–0.06 (93%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Doughty – McNabb14:49
xG 0.43–0.10 (81%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Martinez – Forbort6:22
xG 0.57–0.24 (71%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Prust – Horvat2:26
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Burrows – Hansen – Vey2:13
xG 0.07–0.04 (65%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen9:17
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Baertschi – Horvat3:54
xG 0.18–0.24 (44%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Weber – Hutton8:18
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Biega – Bartkowski3:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Biega – Hutton2:41
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).