Mon, Dec 28, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 6, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 29 | 19 | 38 | 626 |
| SJS | 18 | 117 | 113 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:46COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Carl Soderberg, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 10:07SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 14:28COLCarl SoderbergPPAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Alex Tanguay · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 11:19COLMatt DucheneAssists: John Mitchell, Andreas Martinsen · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 13:58SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Joe Thornton, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 7:09COLBlake ComeauPPGWGAssists: Erik Johnson, Tyson Barrie · Tip-in, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 8:07SJSTomas HertlAssists: Mike Brown, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 8:44COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Carl Soderberg, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–3
- P3 18:32COLNathan MacKinnonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.42 xG6–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:33SJSTomas Hertl: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:58SJSJoe Thornton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:31SJSBrenden Dillon: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:41SJSPaul Martin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:01COLBlake Comeau: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:15COLAndreas Martinsen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:11SJSBrent Burns: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:23SJSTommy Wingels: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:04COLJarome Iginla: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marleau won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcLeod – Skille – Grigorenko6:02
xG 0.50–0.18 (73%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Iginla – Tanguay – MacKinnon9:11
xG 0.12–0.24 (33%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Duchene – Martinsen11:35
xG 0.33–0.49 (40%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Landeskog7:22
xG 0.11–0.30 (28%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Johnson13:50
xG 0.07–0.52 (13%)attempts 2–21goals 0–1
- Redmond – Gormley9:34
xG 0.30–0.78 (28%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Holden2:20
xG 0.00–0.49 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Karlsson6:17
xG 0.65–0.09 (88%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Wingels – Donskoi – Tierney7:43
xG 0.72–0.27 (73%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Zubrus – Brown – Hertl2:48
xG 0.47–0.04 (91%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Marleau – Ward – Nieto10:06
xG 0.54–0.13 (80%)attempts 16–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun12:37
xG 0.58–0.07 (90%)attempts 19–2goals 1–0
- Dillon – DeMelo11:03
xG 0.35–0.01 (97%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Martin – Burns12:43
xG 0.69–0.63 (52%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).