Wed, Dec 30, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 110 | 011 | 03 | 2 | 336 |
| PIT | 17 | 120 | 010 | 04 | 1 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:51TORDion PhaneufAssists: Nazem Kadri, Leo Komarov · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 5:25PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 1:13TORJake GardinerAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 4:45PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Brian Dumoulin · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PIT David Perron scored
- 2. TOR Peter Holland scored
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 4. TOR PA Parenteau scored
- 5. PIT Kris Letang stopped
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:23TORPeter Holland: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:13PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:11TORLeo Komarov: Boarding2 min
- P1 15:11TORJake Gardiner: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:11PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:14PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:14TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:06TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:06PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:00TORRoman Polak: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:43TORMartin Marincin: Holding2 min
- P3 12:29PITPatric Hornqvist: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:20TORTyler Bozak: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Grabner – Kadri10:06
xG 0.71–0.31 (69%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Lupul – Winnik – Arcobello6:35
xG 0.20–0.07 (74%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Parenteau – van Riemsdyk – Bozak10:43
xG 0.22–0.38 (37%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Boyes – Matthias – Holland7:32
xG 0.10–0.33 (23%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gardiner13:05
xG 0.69–0.21 (77%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Polak – Marincin5:45
xG 0.09–0.11 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Polak – Rielly2:49
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Perron9:25
xG 0.52–0.20 (72%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Sheary8:40
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Kessel2:06
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Porter8:50
xG 0.18–0.34 (34%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Dumoulin13:56
xG 0.63–0.15 (81%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Daley – Cole10:55
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Letang – Maatta13:11
xG 0.21–1.26 (14%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).