Wed, Dec 30, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New Jersey Devils 3, Ottawa Senators 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 210 | 06 | 15 | 321 |
| OTT | 08 | 015 | 013 | 036 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:11NJDMichael CammalleriPPGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 18:08NJDMichael CammalleriAssists: Travis Zajac · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 19:44NJDLee StempniakENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.50 xG3–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:51OTTChris Wideman: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:19OTTKyle Turris: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:30OTTChris Neil: Charging2 min
- P1 16:49OTTMax McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:49NJDBobby Farnham: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:45NJDAndy Greene: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:30NJDDamon Severson: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:13NJDBobby Farnham: Embellishment2 min
- P3 15:14OTTAndrew Hammond: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:48NJDJohn Moore: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestSislo – Matteau – Kalinin6:47
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Zajac – Palmieri9:42
xG 0.27–0.40 (40%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Gionta – Farnham7:27
xG 0.03–0.18 (12%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Tlusty – Henrique6:13
xG 0.02–0.18 (10%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Larsson8:57
xG 0.46–0.23 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Merrill – Severson11:45
xG 0.49–0.48 (50%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson3:40
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Smith – Pageau4:47
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Prince – Lazar3:54
xG 0.19–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Turris – Hoffman – Stone4:53
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Stone2:45
xG 0.06–0.02 (74%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Borowiecki7:15
xG 0.59–0.04 (94%)attempts 16–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Claesson11:32
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Wiercioch5:37
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).