Thu, Dec 31, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Detroit Red Wings 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 217 | 39 | 537 |
| DET | 210 | 013 | 012 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:47DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Dylan Larkin, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 12:15DETBrendan SmithAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Alexey Marchenko · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–2
- P2 0:45PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 11:44PITKris LetangPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 7:48PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: David Perron · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 8:22PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Phil Kessel, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 18:20PITKris LetangENAssists: Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.51 xG5–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:15PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:15DETLuke Glendening: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:15DETDanny DeKeyser: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:35PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:28PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:14DETDanny DeKeyser: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:17DETBrad Richards: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:55DETLuke Glendening: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:55PITDavid Perron: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:13PITPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:33PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:33DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Perron10:10
xG 1.38–0.24 (85%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Cullen – Malkin – Kessel10:48
xG 0.60–0.26 (70%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Bonino – Sheary6:32
xG 0.77–0.57 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Fehr – Porter – Plotnikov5:56
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Maatta13:13
xG 1.52–0.25 (86%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Daley – Letang6:11
xG 0.81–0.54 (60%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Daley – Cole5:22
xG 0.32–0.19 (62%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Tatar – Sheahan6:48
xG 0.63–0.04 (94%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Jurco – Glendening – Nosek3:06
xG 0.06–0.03 (70%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Richards – Datsyuk – Helm8:01
xG 0.09–0.23 (27%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin9:02
xG 0.35–1.58 (18%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – DeKeyser2:28
xG 0.08–0.01 (85%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green12:43
xG 0.32–0.91 (26%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Smith – Marchenko10:17
xG 0.12–1.00 (11%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).