Thu, Dec 31, 2015·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 2, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 113 | 111 | 232 |
| CAR | 011 | 115 | 311 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:48CARPhillip Di GiuseppeAssists: Joakim Nordstrom, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 9:49WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Karl Alzner, Matt Niskanen · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 0:51CAREric StaalAssists: Elias Lindholm, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–2
- P3 5:16CARJeff SkinnerGWGAssists: Riley Nash, Victor Rask · Snap, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 14:16WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Brooks Laich · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 19:42CARAndrej NestrasilENAssists: Eric Staal, John-Michael Liles · Backhand, 0.39 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:31WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:16WSHDmitry Orlov: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 5:49CARAndrej Nestrasil: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:49WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:06WSHTom Wilson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Burakovsky2:04
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Chimera – Latta – Wilson3:08
xG 0.24–0.03 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov9:57
xG 0.49–0.54 (48%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Chimera – Sill – Wilson5:24
xG 0.16–0.34 (32%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChorney – Orlov3:19
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Orlov – Schmidt13:22
xG 0.63–0.39 (62%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Schmidt4:03
xG 0.19–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Versteeg – Lindholm14:55
xG 1.30–0.67 (66%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
- McClement – Terry – Nash8:00
xG 0.90–0.43 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom10:25
xG 0.04–0.31 (12%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Di Giuseppe10:36
xG 0.33–0.82 (29%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Slavin17:54
xG 2.11–1.07 (66%)attempts 28–20goals 1–0
- Pesce – Hanifin13:27
xG 0.44–0.74 (37%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Liles – Faulk17:16
xG 0.37–0.85 (30%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).