Thu, Dec 31, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Winnipeg Jets 2, Arizona Coyotes 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 114 | 015 | 18 | 237 |
| ARI | 16 | 05 | 310 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:31WPGAdam LowryAssists: Alexander Burmistrov, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P1 9:28ARIShane DoanAssists: Max Domi, Nicklas Grossmann · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 1:18ARIViktor TikhonovPPAssists: Michael Stone, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–2
- P3 7:45WPGAdam LowryUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 12:35ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPGWGAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 19:44ARIShane DoanENAssists: Jordan Martinook, Brad Richardson · Wrist, 0.76 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:22ARIJohn Scott: Interference2 min
- P1 11:20ARICraig Cunningham: Holding2 min
- P1 16:57WPGJoel Armia: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:56ARIViktor Tikhonov: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:16WPGTyler Myers: Holding2 min
- P2 10:16WPGMathieu Perreault: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:43ARIMichael Stone: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:43WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Embellishment2 min
- P2 0:00WPGAndrew Ladd: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:34WPGTyler Myers: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Burmistrov – Lowry6:38
xG 0.89–0.15 (86%)attempts 13–2goals 1–1
- Halischuk – Armia – Copp6:33
xG 0.36–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Burmistrov – Lowry2:47
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Stafford – Perreault – Ehlers2:39
xG 0.15–0.03 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Myers15:41
xG 1.17–0.04 (97%)attempts 21–5goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Trouba14:03
xG 0.78–0.56 (58%)attempts 23–9goals 1–1
- Stuart – Chiarot8:16
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Tikhonov – Rieder – Duclair4:01
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Doan – Richardson – Martinook10:24
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Chipchura – Scott – Cunningham4:28
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
- Vermette – Boedker – Rieder4:11
xG 0.03–0.23 (12%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Murphy14:26
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Grossmann – Stone13:59
xG 0.27–0.69 (28%)attempts 9–26goals 0–1
- Michalek – Dahlbeck10:14
xG 0.08–1.07 (7%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).