Fri, Jan 1, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Anaheim Ducks 1, Vancouver Canucks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 09 | 19 | 010 | 00 | 0 | 128 |
| VAN | 06 | 09 | 18 | 02 | 1 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:24ANARyan KeslerPPAssists: Chris Stewart, Mike Santorelli · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P3 10:24VANChris TanevAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Linden Vey · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. VAN Alexandre Burrows scored
- 2. ANA Ryan Kesler stopped
- 3. VAN Radim Vrbata stopped
- 4. ANA Jakob Silfverberg stopped
- 5. VAN Linden Vey stopped
- 6. ANA Corey Perry stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:43ANAShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:31VANMatt Bartkowski: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:31VANYannick Weber: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:33ANAJakob Silfverberg: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 15:28ANARyan Kesler: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Horcoff
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Rakell11:00
xG 0.54–0.13 (81%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Horcoff – Santorelli – Cogliano9:48
xG 0.61–0.42 (59%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Kesler – Hagelin – Silfverberg11:54
xG 0.16–0.13 (55%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Thompson – Stewart – Maroon7:26
xG 0.02–0.16 (10%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Theodore11:50
xG 0.50–0.16 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Vatanen17:32
xG 0.39–0.30 (57%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Manson – Lindholm14:32
xG 0.32–0.35 (47%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – Prust – Cracknell3:55
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Higgins – Dorsett – Vey6:08
xG 0.06–0.05 (57%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Burrows – Dorsett – Vey2:45
xG 0.03–0.03 (54%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen12:13
xG 0.19–0.22 (45%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Edler – Tanev16:00
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
- Weber – Hutton14:09
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Biega – Bartkowski15:10
xG 0.22–0.75 (23%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).