Sat, Jan 2, 2016·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Arizona Coyotes 3, Edmonton Oilers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 112 | 110 | 19 | 03 | 1 | 334 |
| EDM | 210 | 012 | 116 | 03 | 2 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:56ARISteve DownieAssists: Jordan Martinook, Brad Richardson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 7:55EDMTaylor HallAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Teddy Purcell · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 11:39EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Mark Letestu, Benoit Pouliot · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–2
- P2 14:30ARIBrad RichardsonAssists: Jordan Martinook, Klas Dahlbeck · Backhand, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 5:51ARIAnthony DuclairAssists: Max Domi, Klas Dahlbeck · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 14:08EDMJordan EberleAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Benoit Pouliot · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. EDM Jordan Eberle stopped
- 2. ARI Mikkel Boedker scored
- 3. EDM Matt Hendricks scored
- 4. ARI Max Domi stopped
- 5. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored
- 6. ARI Antoine Vermette stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:33EDMBenoit Pouliot: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:20ARINicklas Grossmann: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:46EDMBenoit Pouliot: Interference2 min
- P1 18:39EDMEric Gryba: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:57ARILaurent Dauphin: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:55ARISteve Downie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:30ARIMax Domi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:11EDMBenoit Pouliot: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 19:11ARIMichael Stone: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Richardson – Martinook13:10
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Vermette – Boedker – Rieder6:14
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Chipchura – Downie – Dauphin2:42
xG 0.03–0.06 (33%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Tikhonov – Duclair – Domi2:22
xG 0.00–0.17 (2%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Murphy18:05
xG 1.04–0.73 (59%)attempts 23–18goals 0–1
- Michalek – Dahlbeck10:14
xG 0.45–0.27 (62%)attempts 15–13goals 3–1
- Grossmann – Stone15:14
xG 0.65–0.83 (44%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Hall – Draisaitl13:14
xG 0.61–0.40 (60%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Klinkhammer – Lander – Khaira5:53
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Korpikoski – Letestu9:16
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins13:05
xG 0.71–0.95 (43%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Nurse13:02
xG 0.52–0.29 (65%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Gryba – Hunt13:08
xG 0.33–0.55 (38%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Sekera – Davidson14:40
xG 0.67–1.13 (37%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).