Sat, Jan 2, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Minnesota Wild 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 14 | 011 | 115 | 02 | 0 | 232 |
| TBL | 112 | 113 | 03 | 02 | 1 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:40TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: Alex Killorn, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 15:39MINCharlie CoyleUnassisted · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 1:03TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Ondrej Palat, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 17:21MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Charlie Coyle, Nino Niederreiter · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 2. TBL Brian Boyle stopped
- 3. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 4. TBL Ryan Callahan scored
- 5. MIN Charlie Coyle stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:58MINMathew Dumba: Holding2 min
- P1 18:03TBLAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
- P2 17:31TBLJonathan Marchessault: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:52TBLCedric Paquette: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:54TBLBraydon Coburn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Paquette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Vanek – Haula – Niederreiter4:48
xG 0.04–0.01 (82%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Coyle10:25
xG 0.15–0.20 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Stoll – Porter – Carter10:04
xG 0.09–0.24 (27%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund5:03
xG 0.04–0.27 (13%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Spurgeon2:51
xG 0.48–0.04 (92%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Suter – Dumba3:00
xG 0.09–0.04 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Prosser – Brodin6:13
xG 0.07–0.04 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Namestnikov – Marchessault7:18
xG 0.25–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Callahan – Brown – Paquette7:38
xG 0.16–0.07 (69%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov13:10
xG 0.41–0.48 (46%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
- Filppula – Killorn – Stamkos12:57
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman15:08
xG 0.64–0.31 (68%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Coburn – Hedman2:18
xG 0.14–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Garrison – Sustr15:17
xG 0.43–0.36 (54%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).