Sat, Jan 2, 2016·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 012 | 114 | 114 | 240 |
| PIT | 220 | 310 | 013 | 543 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:34PITPhil KesselAssists: Matt Cullen, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 16:35PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 10:25PITSidney CrosbyPPGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 10:57PITMatt CullenSHAssists: Kris Letang, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
- P2 14:40PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Brian Dumoulin · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–5
- P2 15:19NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Calvin de Haan, Josh Bailey · Snap, 0.32 xG1–5
- P3 19:03NYINick LeddyAssists: Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:50NYICalvin de Haan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:34NYIAnders Lee: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:55NYIMatt Martin: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:39PITConor Sheary: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:22NYIRyan Strome: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Kulemin11:18
xG 0.62–0.32 (66%)attempts 20–6goals 1–1
- Grabovski – Nelson – Strome10:05
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee15:43
xG 0.95–0.96 (50%)attempts 23–17goals 1–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Strome4:30
xG 0.04–0.23 (14%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Zidlicky – Hickey11:16
xG 0.40–0.39 (51%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Leddy22:33
xG 0.95–0.96 (50%)attempts 30–22goals 1–1
- Strait – de Haan13:49
xG 0.80–0.86 (48%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Perron12:04
xG 1.31–0.23 (85%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Bonino – Sheary10:34
xG 0.44–0.35 (56%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Fehr – Porter – Plotnikov10:09
xG 0.38–0.78 (33%)attempts 10–14goals 0–2
- Cullen – Malkin – Kessel10:03
xG 0.25–0.69 (27%)attempts 5–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Maatta17:13
xG 1.29–0.70 (65%)attempts 21–23goals 0–0
- Daley – Cole13:31
xG 0.59–0.63 (48%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
- Lovejoy – Dumoulin14:32
xG 0.49–0.81 (38%)attempts 10–22goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).