Sat, Jan 2, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Calgary Flames 4, Colorado Avalanche 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 110 | 312 | 012 | 434 |
| COL | 012 | 013 | 01 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:57CGYDougie HamiltonPPGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 8:18CGYJosh JoorisAssists: Mark Giordano, TJ Brodie · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 10:47CGYMatt StajanAssists: Dennis Wideman, Josh Jooris · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 13:07CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Micheal Ferland · Snap, 0.31 xG4–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:07COLJohn Mitchell: Interference2 min
- P1 6:33COLJohn Mitchell: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 9:01CGYMarkus Granlund: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 11:56COLGabriel Landeskog: Holding2 min
- P1 17:45CGYMicheal Ferland: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:02COLJohn Mitchell: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:46COLNick Holden: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:14COLNathan MacKinnon: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Comeau won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJones – Backlund – Ferland7:14
xG 0.78–0.03 (96%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Colborne – Granlund – Bennett2:31
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Jooris6:39
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 4–5goals 2–0
- Colborne – Gaudreau – Monahan9:15
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie13:15
xG 1.09–0.23 (83%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Wideman – Smid8:09
xG 0.57–0.09 (87%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell3:03
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Soderberg – Landeskog10:12
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Mitchell – McLeod – Skille2:09
xG 0.02–0.02 (46%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Duchene – MacKinnon – Martinsen3:08
xG 0.02–0.03 (38%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Grigorenko3:35
xG 0.08–0.20 (27%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Johnson14:03
xG 0.31–0.46 (40%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Holden – Barrie13:09
xG 0.34–0.53 (39%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Redmond – Gormley9:51
xG 0.13–0.54 (20%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).