Tue, Jan 5, 2016·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 5, Buffalo Sabres 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 18 | 39 | 527 |
| BUF | 012 | 112 | 08 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:45FLAJaromir JagrAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 2:44BUFRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Jamie McGinn · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 8:54FLADerek MacKenzieGWGAssists: Corban Knight, Alexander Petrovic · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 5:35FLACorban KnightAssists: Quinton Howden, Derek MacKenzie · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 16:06FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–1
- P3 18:39FLABrandon PirriENAssists: Willie Mitchell · Wrist, 0.65 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:47FLAQuinton Howden: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:10FLANick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:35FLAJaromir Jagr: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:44FLAQuinton Howden: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:29BUFEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:29FLADmitry Kulikov: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:53BUFJake McCabe: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:21FLADmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov10:06
xG 0.51–0.13 (80%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Knight – Howden7:41
xG 0.18–0.15 (53%)attempts 3–9goals 2–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck8:06
xG 0.06–0.16 (28%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Pirri – Bjugstad – Shaw9:12
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gudbranson10:50
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Ekblad8:39
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Ekblad2:13
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Moulson – Larsson9:39
xG 0.50–0.34 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Legwand – Foligno – Schaller4:42
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Kane – Reinhart12:49
xG 0.35–0.39 (48%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- McGinn – Girgensons – Eichel10:25
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 1–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Ristolainen16:58
xG 0.73–0.35 (67%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Bogosian – McCabe14:55
xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Franson8:51
xG 0.05–0.42 (10%)attempts 3–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).