Wed, Jan 6, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 02 | 113 | 113 | 228 |
| VAN | 08 | 17 | 26 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:02CARJohn-Michael LilesSHAssists: Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 17:39VANSven BaertschiAssists: Adam Cracknell, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 7:15VANBo HorvatAssists: Matt Bartkowski, Alex Biega · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 12:00CARJordan StaalAssists: Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 18:54VANBo HorvatPPGWGAssists: Sven Baertschi, Linden Vey · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:58CARJay McClement: Holding2 min
- P1 19:18VANJared McCann: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 6:37CARNoah Hanifin: Holding2 min
- P2 18:41CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:54CARElias Lindholm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:08VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min
- P3 17:17CARJaccob Slavin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom7:45
xG 0.42–0.25 (63%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- McClement – Nash – Malone3:38
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Versteeg – Lindholm10:31
xG 0.26–0.19 (57%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Terry – Skinner – Rask7:55
xG 0.16–0.25 (38%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Slavin13:06
xG 0.85–0.41 (68%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Liles – Pesce9:12
xG 0.32–0.29 (53%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Liles5:02
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPrust – Dorsett – McCann9:29
xG 0.36–0.17 (67%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Baertschi – Horvat10:13
xG 0.58–0.46 (55%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Burrows – Cracknell – Vey7:41
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen9:17
xG 0.18–0.56 (24%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev16:34
xG 0.53–0.38 (58%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Biega – Bartkowski13:05
xG 0.48–0.63 (43%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Weber – Hutton11:23
xG 0.30–0.50 (37%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).