Thu, Jan 7, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 115 | 211 | 06 | 14 | 436 |
| MIN | 110 | 16 | 113 | 05 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:49PHISean CouturierAssists: Michael Raffl, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 14:41MINMarco ScandellaAssists: Nino Niederreiter · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 9:02PHIMichael Del ZottoAssists: Brayden Schenn, Evgeny Medvedev · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 9:54PHIRyan WhiteAssists: Chris VandeVelde, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 15:58MINJason ZuckerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 13:36MINZach PariseUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 4:23PHIMichael Del ZottoGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:03MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:04PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:04MINRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:23PHISean Couturier: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 7:41MINNino Niederreiter: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Read – Laughton8:57
xG 0.55–0.00 (100%)attempts 16–0goals 0–0
- Schenn – Couturier – Raffl11:41
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare10:47
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 8–9goals 1–2
- Giroux – Voracek – Simmonds14:29
xG 0.30–0.83 (27%)attempts 10–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Medvedev5:58
xG 0.45–0.05 (90%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Gudas16:42
xG 0.84–0.60 (58%)attempts 18–13goals 0–2
- Schultz – Medvedev3:59
xG 0.11–0.05 (67%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Zucker13:55
xG 0.83–0.21 (80%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Pominville – Granlund – Niederreiter12:59
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Stoll – Porter – Carter6:33
xG 0.06–0.33 (15%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Vanek – Haula – Coyle9:10
xG 0.17–0.69 (20%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Suter – Spurgeon21:44
xG 0.64–0.61 (51%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
- Strachan – Scandella4:56
xG 0.14–0.12 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba7:04
xG 0.13–0.19 (40%)attempts 6–5goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).