Thu, Jan 7, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Arizona Coyotes 2, Calgary Flames 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 114 | 012 | 17 | 233 |
| CGY | 16 | 012 | 08 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:37CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 18:11ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Anthony Duclair, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 1:47ARIMartin HanzalGWGAssists: Stefan Elliott, Anthony Duclair · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:14CGYTJ Brodie: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:18ARINicklas Grossmann: Interference2 min
- P1 13:32ARIJordan Martinook: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:45CGYMason Raymond: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:10CGYTJ Brodie: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:09ARIViktor Tikhonov: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestGordon – Chipchura – Tikhonov7:40
xG 0.49–0.03 (94%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Doan – Richardson – Martinook10:07
xG 0.59–0.23 (72%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Vermette – Boedker – Domi10:21
xG 0.77–0.42 (65%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Rieder – Duclair9:22
xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Murphy15:22
xG 0.64–0.21 (75%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Elliott – Dahlbeck12:17
xG 0.65–0.40 (62%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Grossmann – Stone16:28
xG 0.63–0.51 (55%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJones – Backlund – Ferland6:29
xG 0.28–0.05 (85%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Jones – Backlund – Bennett2:25
xG 0.04–0.05 (43%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Backlund – Ferland – Bennett2:36
xG 0.01–0.06 (20%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan2:42
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Hamilton10:03
xG 0.58–0.48 (55%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Russell – Brodie2:26
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell9:11
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).