Sat, Jan 9, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 210 | 07 | 13 | 430 |
| CBJ | 05 | 110 | 28 | 01 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:09CARAndrej NestrasilPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 1:27CARKris VersteegAssists: Eric Staal, Justin Faulk · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 7:32CARJohn-Michael LilesAssists: Joakim Nordstrom, Jordan Staal · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 15:28CBJCam AtkinsonSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–1
- P3 4:23CBJAlexander WennbergAssists: Brandon Saad, David Savard · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 11:54CBJJosh AndersonAssists: Kerby Rychel, Brandon Dubinsky · Snap, 0.20 xG3–3
- OT 2:45CARJordan StaalGWGAssists: Jaccob Slavin · Snap, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:15CARBrad Malone: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:15CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:10CBJBoone Jenner: Concealing puck2 min · PPG
- P2 2:23CARJaccob Slavin: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:14CBJRyan Murray: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 16:41CBJFedor Tyutin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:13CARRiley Nash: Interference2 min
- P3 16:23CBJJosh Anderson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTerry – Nash – Skinner7:49
xG 0.14–0.05 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- McClement – Malone – McGinn5:26
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Versteeg – Lindholm10:09
xG 0.53–0.83 (39%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom11:12
xG 0.38–0.76 (33%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Slavin – Hanifin8:52
xG 0.22–0.38 (36%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Liles – Pesce15:51
xG 0.34–0.73 (31%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Faulk16:39
xG 0.28–1.16 (19%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner6:35
xG 0.60–0.21 (74%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Dubinsky – Anderson – Rychel4:18
xG 0.24–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Saad – Wennberg14:13
xG 0.58–0.44 (57%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Jenner – Karlsson4:09
xG 0.16–0.09 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Jones16:59
xG 1.36–0.29 (82%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Falk11:31
xG 0.58–0.30 (66%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard16:52
xG 0.51–0.61 (45%)attempts 13–19goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).