Sat, Jan 9, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Nashville Predators 0, Arizona Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 014 | 05 | 07 | 026 |
| ARI | 011 | 19 | 39 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:35ARIAntoine VermettePPGWGAssists: Shane Doan, Tobias Rieder · Wrist, 0.37 xG0–1
- P3 0:55ARITobias RiederAssists: Martin Hanzal · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 17:37ARITobias RiederENAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.76 xG0–3
- P3 19:46ARIAnthony DuclairUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:48ARIMartin Hanzal: Holding2 min
- P1 13:51ARIConnor Murphy: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:50NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:42NSHBarret Jackman: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:59ARIAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00NSHRyan Johansen: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Neal won the faceoff against Doan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Smith – Jarnkrok11:07
xG 0.35–0.07 (82%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Neal – Johansen – Forsberg12:25
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Hodgson – Jarnkrok – Arvidsson2:45
xG 0.08–0.05 (63%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Salomaki6:32
xG 0.10–0.26 (27%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm4:55
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi15:09
xG 0.52–0.43 (54%)attempts 23–14goals 0–1
- Jackman – Ellis11:03
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestGordon – Chipchura – Tikhonov7:59
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Rieder – Duclair10:31
xG 0.71–0.64 (53%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Vermette – Boedker – Domi9:58
xG 0.17–0.15 (54%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Doan – Richardson – Martinook12:06
xG 0.05–0.25 (17%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Murphy17:07
xG 0.57–0.34 (63%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Grossmann – Stone15:01
xG 0.66–0.80 (45%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
- Michalek – Dahlbeck13:11
xG 0.09–0.39 (19%)attempts 2–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).