Sun, Jan 10, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Buffalo Sabres 4, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 28 | 012 | 29 | 429 |
| WPG | 111 | 118 | 015 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:37BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Johan Larsson, Mike Weber · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 5:21WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Bryan Little, Drew Stafford · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 14:29BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 0:55WPGMathieu PerreaultPPAssists: Andrew Ladd, Bryan Little · Snap, 0.27 xG2–2
- P3 4:12BUFMarcus FolignoGWGAssists: Brian Gionta, Jake McCabe · Slap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 19:34BUFSam ReinhartENAssists: Evander Kane, Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.76 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:21WPGTyler Myers: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:41BUFMike Weber: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:33BUFMike Weber: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:33WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:33BUFMike Weber: Boarding2 min
- P2 5:00WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:25WPGBlake Wheeler: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Moulson – Schaller5:27
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Kane13:16
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Gionta – Kane – Larsson2:02
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Reinhart – Eichel10:22
xG 0.26–0.54 (33%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Weber8:33
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Franson – Bogosian3:28
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Bogosian – McCabe16:51
xG 0.26–0.53 (33%)attempts 8–17goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Stafford – Little15:38
xG 0.92–0.20 (82%)attempts 29–7goals 1–1
- Ladd – Burmistrov – Lowry12:03
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Peluso – Armia – Copp4:56
xG 0.08–0.05 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Perreault – Ehlers11:18
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Myers18:16
xG 0.74–0.41 (64%)attempts 22–9goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Trouba16:55
xG 0.69–0.39 (64%)attempts 23–10goals 0–0
- Stuart – Chiarot11:11
xG 0.14–0.34 (28%)attempts 7–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).