Tue, Jan 12, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 05 | 17 | 113 | 00 | 225 |
| CAR | 05 | 25 | 08 | 13 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:52CAREric StaalAssists: Kris Versteeg, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 9:44CARKris VersteegAssists: Elias Lindholm, Eric Staal · Deflected, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 10:29PITKris LetangAssists: Olli Maatta, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 6:02PITChris KunitzAssists: Sidney Crosby, Patric Hornqvist · Snap, 0.17 xG2–2
- OT 3:02CARJeff SkinnerPPGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:39CARElias Lindholm: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:30CARBrad Malone: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:52PITTrevor Daley: Interference2 min
- P3 6:26PITIan Cole: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:26CARRon Hainsey: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:26PITIan Cole: Roughing2 min
- OT 2:40PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist7:21
xG 1.16–0.11 (92%)attempts 16–5goals 2–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Porter9:05
xG 0.40–0.01 (97%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Perron7:36
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Kessel6:53
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Maatta17:57
xG 1.13–0.40 (74%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- Lovejoy – Dumoulin13:13
xG 0.72–0.46 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Daley – Cole13:06
xG 0.33–0.36 (48%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Skinner – Rask – McGinn8:52
xG 0.11–0.29 (28%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom14:09
xG 0.24–0.51 (32%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Staal – Versteeg – Lindholm13:01
xG 0.69–0.98 (41%)attempts 12–12goals 2–1
- McClement – Nash – Malone4:40
xG 0.11–0.41 (21%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hainsey – Slavin19:13
xG 0.50–0.80 (39%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Faulk – Hanifin4:04
xG 0.01–0.35 (4%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Pesce – Hanifin8:39
xG 0.02–0.50 (3%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).