Tue, Jan 12, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
New Jersey Devils 2, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 210 | 08 | 06 | 224 |
| STL | 19 | 215 | 213 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:04STLPatrik BerglundPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.48 xG0–1
- P1 12:12NJDBobby FarnhamAssists: Stephen Gionta, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 14:47NJDLee StempniakAssists: Adam Larsson, Joseph Blandisi · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–1
- P2 4:33STLScottie UpshallAssists: Troy Brouwer, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–2
- P2 17:14STLPatrik BerglundPPGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Jori Lehtera · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 2:21STLTy RattieAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Robby Fabbri · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 19:24STLDavid BackesENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 8:39NJDLee Stempniak: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:37STLPatrik Berglund: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:49STLDmitrij Jaskin: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:21NJDDamon Severson: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:03NJDJon Merrill: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:19NJDSergey Kalinin: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:41NJDAdam Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:53STLColton Parayko: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:50NJDBobby Farnham: Interference5 min
- P3 11:50NJDJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:50STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:50STLKyle Brodziak: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:50NJDBobby Farnham: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:50STLKyle Brodziak: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Steen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Henrique – Blandisi8:53
xG 1.03–0.50 (67%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Tootoo – Gionta – Farnham5:44
xG 0.09–0.12 (44%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Kennedy – O'Brien – Thompson9:57
xG 0.16–0.65 (20%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Kalinin9:28
xG 0.07–0.94 (7%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Severson11:46
xG 0.81–0.47 (63%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson12:41
xG 0.83–1.40 (37%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Gragnani – Merrill9:13
xG 0.15–0.72 (17%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Steen – Brouwer9:25
xG 1.09–0.04 (97%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Berglund – Lehtera – Tarasenko3:55
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Backes – Rattie – Fabbri3:54
xG 0.19–0.07 (74%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Backes – Berglund – Rattie4:51
xG 0.09–0.01 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Pietrangelo13:05
xG 1.19–0.14 (89%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Bortuzzo – Edmundson12:34
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Butler – Parayko11:05
xG 0.54–1.05 (34%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).