Tue, Jan 12, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Colorado Avalanche 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 115 | 212 | 111 | 438 |
| COL | 09 | 08 | 04 | 021 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:29TBLOndrej PalatGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P2 1:39TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Ondrej Palat · Slap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 5:16TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ondrej Palat, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–0
- P3 11:55TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:23COLAlex Tanguay: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:48TBLValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:49COLZach Redmond: Elbowing2 min
- P2 6:36TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:10COLZach Redmond: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:10COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Palat – Namestnikov10:45
xG 0.59–0.19 (76%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Kucherov11:51
xG 0.53–0.19 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Paquette12:08
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Boyle – Kucherov – Brown2:29
xG 0.05–0.03 (66%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Nesterov8:23
xG 0.45–0.18 (72%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Stralman – Hedman7:21
xG 0.30–0.15 (66%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Coburn – Carle2:26
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Comeau – Soderberg – Landeskog5:38
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Comeau – Soderberg2:26
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – McLeod3:38
xG 0.12–0.13 (49%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Duchene – MacKinnon3:55
xG 0.17–0.23 (42%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Bodnarchuk5:36
xG 0.34–0.05 (88%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Guenin – Holden7:08
xG 0.11–0.23 (32%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Guenin – Redmond3:27
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).