Thu, Jan 14, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Detroit Red Wings 3, Arizona Coyotes 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 05 | 011 | 28 | 11 | 325 |
| ARI | 012 | 28 | 07 | 02 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:51ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Jordan Martinook, Brad Richardson · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 18:50ARIShane DoanPPAssists: Tobias Rieder, Mikkel Boedker · Deflected, 0.33 xG0–2
- P3 11:50DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Mike Green, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 14:20DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–2
- OT 2:08DETDanny DeKeyserGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:36DETTomas Jurco: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:46ARIAntoine Vermette: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:25DETDylan Larkin: Interference2 min
- P2 10:25ARITobias Rieder: Embellishment2 min
- P2 14:09DETJustin Abdelkader: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:49DETPavel Datsyuk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:51ARIAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:05ARIAnthony Duclair: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader4:14
xG 0.31–0.07 (81%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Richards – Jurco – Larkin2:43
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist9:34
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Richards – Sheahan – Larkin6:52
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson12:24
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green2:39
xG 0.13–0.07 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Smith2:54
xG 0.04–0.01 (78%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Richardson – Martinook10:04
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
- Vermette – Boedker – Rieder11:46
xG 0.45–0.36 (55%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Gordon – Chipchura – Tikhonov8:55
xG 0.12–0.25 (33%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Duclair – Domi9:38
xG 0.20–0.40 (33%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrossmann – Stone16:03
xG 0.64–0.41 (61%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy18:00
xG 0.53–0.67 (44%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
- Michalek – Dahlbeck12:43
xG 0.24–0.46 (34%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).