Fri, Jan 15, 2016·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 4, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 09 | 19 | 313 | 431 |
| BUF | 110 | 016 | 08 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:37BUFDavid LegwandUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 1:01BOSMatt BeleskeyAssists: Ryan Spooner, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 0:29BOSZdeno CharaGWGAssists: Ryan Spooner, Matt Beleskey · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 10:53BOSRyan SpoonerAssists: Loui Eriksson, Kevan Miller · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 18:51BOSBrett ConnollyENAssists: Brad Marchand · Wrap-around, 0.78 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:01BUFJohan Larsson: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:01BOSMax Talbot: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:13BUFCody Franson: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:30BOSMax Talbot: Holding2 min
- P2 4:59BOSLandon Ferraro: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:12BOSZdeno Chara: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:15BUFMike Weber: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:43BOSRyan Spooner: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Connolly11:15
xG 0.48–0.10 (82%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Beleskey – Spooner9:23
xG 0.43–0.09 (82%)attempts 10–6goals 3–0
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Ferraro9:34
xG 0.18–0.37 (34%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Hayes – Vatrano – Kemppainen8:29
xG 0.09–0.45 (17%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug7:30
xG 0.44–0.10 (82%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Chara – Miller2:56
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Trotman2:09
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Moulson – Schaller3:48
xG 0.25–0.04 (85%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Moulson – Reinhart – Eichel4:46
xG 0.10–0.02 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Reinhart – Eichel2:42
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson8:50
xG 0.31–0.45 (41%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Ristolainen2:06
xG 0.34–0.05 (87%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Franson – Weber12:46
xG 0.34–0.09 (79%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Bogosian – McCabe14:12
xG 0.23–0.54 (30%)attempts 11–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).