Sat, Jan 16, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 116 | 14 | 09 | 02 | 1 | 331 |
| PHI | 112 | 011 | 110 | 03 | 0 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:58PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Sean Couturier, Michael Raffl · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–1
- P1 16:08NYRJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Henrik Lundqvist · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 4:49NYRChris KreiderAssists: Rick Nash, Derek Stepan · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 10:33PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PHI Shayne Gostisbehere stopped
- 2. NYR Mats Zuccarello scored
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. NYR Dan Boyle stopped
- 5. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:44PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:23PHIMichael Raffl: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:03PHIJakub Voracek: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:03NYRDan Boyle: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 9:39NYRDominic Moore: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 13:14NYRDerek Stepan: Delaying game2 min
- P3 5:02PHIEvgeny Medvedev: Holding2 min
- P3 9:15NYRDerek Stepan: High sticking2 min · PPG
- OT 4:49PHIShayne Gostisbehere: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Lindberg – Hayes – Fast7:47
xG 0.22–0.23 (48%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Moore – Glass – Stalberg9:19
xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider8:38
xG 0.41–0.54 (43%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
- Brassard – Zuccarello – Miller11:41
xG 0.23–0.43 (35%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Boyle – Yandle9:17
xG 0.35–0.33 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Boyle – Staal3:25
xG 0.02–0.07 (23%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Yandle – Girardi2:20
xG 0.01–0.07 (11%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Couturier – Raffl9:27
xG 0.81–0.34 (70%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Simmonds13:35
xG 0.54–0.34 (61%)attempts 24–12goals 0–0
- Umberger – Read – Laughton8:18
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare7:46
xG 0.05–0.32 (12%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Medvedev11:49
xG 0.80–0.31 (72%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Streit – Schultz11:26
xG 0.66–0.22 (75%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Streit – Gostisbehere2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).