Sat, Jan 16, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 113 | 18 | 08 | 229 |
| BOS | 118 | 113 | 114 | 345 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:45BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Torey Krug, Kevan Miller · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 4:31TORLeo KomarovAssists: Nazem Kadri, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–1
- P2 0:39BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Zdeno Chara, Zach Trotman · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 17:16TORShawn MatthiasAssists: Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 19:13BOSBrad MarchandGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:09BOSBrad Marchand: High sticking2 min
- P1 3:09TORJake Gardiner: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:25TORRich Clune: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:25BOSZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:36BOSDennis Seidenberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:20BOSBrad Marchand: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:41BOSZach Trotman: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:29BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min
- P3 7:19TORMatt Hunwick: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:37BOSJimmy Hayes: Elbowing2 min
- P3 0:00TORPA Parenteau: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Boyes – Lupul – Holland7:12
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Clune – Froese – Leivo5:31
xG 0.06–0.33 (15%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Komarov – Grabner – Kadri9:40
xG 0.31–0.64 (32%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Matthias – Bozak10:38
xG 0.16–0.67 (19%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Polak – Gardiner2:12
xG 0.04–0.07 (36%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Polak – Hunwick2:45
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Polak – Rielly3:07
xG 0.03–0.08 (31%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Connolly11:25
xG 0.83–0.15 (85%)attempts 23–5goals 3–1
- Eriksson – Beleskey – Spooner11:39
xG 0.79–0.33 (71%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Hayes – Vatrano – Kemppainen7:48
xG 0.21–0.03 (89%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Ferraro5:52
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Morrow10:31
xG 0.87–0.09 (91%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug10:56
xG 0.73–0.08 (90%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Chara – Trotman12:27
xG 0.48–0.34 (59%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).