Sat, Jan 16, 2016·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 1, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 015 | 112 | 134 |
| BUF | 28 | 215 | 06 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:30BUFPhil VaroneAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 16:00BUFTim SchallerSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 7:14BUFEvander KaneAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 15:37BUFCody FransonPPAssists: Evander Kane, Zach Bogosian · Slap, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 2:54WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Jason Chimera · Slap, 0.11 xG1–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 12:14BUFMark Pysyk: Elbowing2 min
- P1 14:33BUFJack Eichel: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:05WSHTaylor Chorney: Holding2 min
- P2 2:25WSHZach Sill: Holding2 min
- P2 9:29BUFPhil Varone: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:30WSHT.J. Oshie: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:50WSHTaylor Chorney: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00BUFSam Reinhart: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:20BUFMark Pysyk: Interference2 min
- P3 10:43WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:43BUFMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:48WSHAaron Ness: Holding2 min
- P3 14:12BUFZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:12WSHJason Chimera: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Sill – Latta7:26
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Chimera – Johansson – Wilson6:11
xG 0.14–0.15 (50%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom8:55
xG 0.11–0.18 (38%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky5:56
xG 0.10–0.39 (20%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Chorney – Ness8:49
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Orlov – Schmidt12:07
xG 0.24–0.46 (34%)attempts 9–8goals 1–2
- Niskanen – Alzner12:54
xG 0.23–0.54 (30%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Varone – Eichel3:51
xG 0.74–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson7:01
xG 0.15–0.04 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Kane – Reinhart7:58
xG 0.10–0.04 (71%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Legwand – Moulson – Schaller4:10
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Ristolainen12:31
xG 0.52–0.15 (77%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Weber – Pysyk13:12
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Franson – McCabe9:35
xG 0.24–0.06 (81%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).