Mon, Jan 18, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Buffalo Sabres 2, Arizona Coyotes 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 09 | 215 | 04 | 228 |
| ARI | 011 | 07 | 19 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:07BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 17:35BUFJamie McGinnPPGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Ristolainen · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–0
- P3 8:04ARIAntoine VermetteAssists: Shane Doan, Tobias Rieder · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
Penalties (16)
- P1 4:27BUFJake McCabe: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 13:59BUFPhil Varone: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:07ARIMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:55ARIConnor Murphy: Kneeing2 min
- P2 13:10BUFTim Schaller: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:11ARIKyle Chipchura: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:53BUFJamie McGinn: Interference2 min
- P3 0:00BUFZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00BUFZach Bogosian: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00BUFZach Bogosian: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00ARIShane Doan: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00ARIAntoine Vermette: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00ARIAnthony Duclair: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00ARIShane Doan: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Foligno – Larsson11:07
xG 0.68–0.05 (94%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Kane – Reinhart11:44
xG 0.46–0.20 (70%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Moulson – McGinn – Eichel2:41
xG 0.08–0.05 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Legwand – Moulson – Schaller2:12
xG 0.05–0.04 (53%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Ristolainen18:17
xG 0.74–0.39 (65%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Weber – Pysyk11:25
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Franson – McCabe11:41
xG 0.40–0.46 (46%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHanzal – Boedker – Rieder5:16
xG 0.17–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Domi3:56
xG 0.15–0.03 (85%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Vermette – Boedker – Rieder6:20
xG 0.53–0.44 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Duclair – Domi4:53
xG 0.16–0.20 (45%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Murphy18:46
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Stone – Connauton4:57
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Michalek – Grossmann2:10
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).