Tue, Jan 19, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 114 | 19 | 335 |
| PHI | 113 | 08 | 112 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:06PHIMatt ReadPPAssists: Evgeny Medvedev, Sean Couturier · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 13:19TORRoman PolakAssists: Brad Boyes, Peter Holland · Backhand, 0.31 xG1–1
- P2 15:10TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P3 12:59PHIShayne GostisbehereUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 19:52TORMatt HunwickGWGAssists: PA Parenteau, Tyler Bozak · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:24TORDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 8:24PHIBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:12TORJoffrey Lupul: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:13PHIPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:16PHIPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 11:16PHIRyan White: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:16TORRoman Polak: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:18TORPeter Holland: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:26PHIPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Holding2 min
- P3 13:08TORNazem Kadri: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Parenteau – Matthias – Bozak11:45
xG 0.80–0.83 (49%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Boyes – Lupul – Holland8:02
xG 0.59–0.64 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Komarov – Grabner – Bozak2:26
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Komarov – Grabner – Kadri9:14
xG 0.22–0.39 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Marincin8:35
xG 0.69–0.16 (81%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Polak – Gardiner2:07
xG 0.16–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Polak – Hunwick3:22
xG 0.02–0.02 (55%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Simmonds11:23
xG 0.94–0.30 (75%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare7:11
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Schenn – Couturier – Raffl10:32
xG 0.76–0.47 (62%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Voracek – Simmonds – Couturier2:06
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Schultz10:14
xG 0.95–0.11 (89%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Schultz – Gostisbehere3:18
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Streit – Gostisbehere2:19
xG 0.39–0.18 (69%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).