Thu, Jan 21, 2016·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 211 | 09 | 112 | 332 |
| PIT | 09 | 317 | 119 | 445 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:17PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–0
- P1 15:51PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 1:40PITTrevor DaleyPPAssists: Olli Maatta, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 7:29PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 14:06PITPhil KesselPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–3
- P3 6:20PITPhil KesselGWGAssists: Carl Hagelin, Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 16:35PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:38PITIan Cole: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 15:39PITTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:45PHIRyan White: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:59PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:57PHIChris VandeVelde: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:48PHIMichael Raffl: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:46PITSidney Crosby: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:55PITPhil Kessel: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:30PHIRadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:41PITBrian Dumoulin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Read – Laughton5:59
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Gagner – Schenn – Raffl8:03
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Gagner – Read – Raffl2:15
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare8:30
xG 0.16–0.69 (19%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Del Zotto3:01
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Medvedev11:43
xG 0.35–0.50 (41%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Streit – Schultz10:05
xG 0.18–0.44 (29%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist11:17
xG 1.13–0.21 (84%)attempts 22–5goals 1–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin12:08
xG 0.88–0.43 (67%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Cullen – Crosby – Hornqvist2:27
xG 0.08–0.02 (78%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Cullen – Porter – Sheary4:08
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Maatta14:21
xG 1.31–0.20 (87%)attempts 24–7goals 1–0
- Daley – Letang2:02
xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Dumoulin11:54
xG 0.35–0.27 (57%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).