Sun, Apr 10, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
Anaheim Ducks 2, Washington Capitals 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 09 | 28 | 04 | 221 |
| WSH | 06 | 011 | 07 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:34ANACorey PerryGWGAssists: Ryan Garbutt · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 6:36ANANick RitchieAssists: Mike Santorelli, Chris Wagner · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:56ANACam Fowler: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:20ANAClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:20WSHMichael Latta: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:46WSHDaniel Winnik: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:03ANAJamie McGinn: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:15ANAJosh Manson: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:15WSHMarcus Johansson: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:18WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:05ANAJosh Manson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:36WSHAndre Burakovsky: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Cogliano – Silfverberg9:13
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Wagner – Ritchie8:54
xG 0.23–0.13 (63%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Horcoff – McGinn – Stewart8:40
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Garbutt10:30
xG 0.31–0.46 (40%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm12:29
xG 0.68–0.14 (83%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Manson – Theodore2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Despres – Fowler10:08
xG 0.19–0.21 (48%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Richards – Winnik – Wilson8:30
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Sill – Latta – Galiev8:37
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky8:51
xG 0.20–0.41 (33%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Chimera – Oshie – Johansson9:32
xG 0.16–0.39 (29%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Chorney – Schmidt11:29
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Alzner12:55
xG 0.43–0.42 (51%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Orlov – Schmidt3:02
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).