Sat, Jan 23, 2016·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Vancouver Canucks 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 210 | 09 | 213 | 432 |
| PIT | 09 | 19 | 412 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:27VANJannik HansenAssists: Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 16:35VANJannik HansenSHAssists: Derek Dorsett, Chris Tanev · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 3:54PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Kris Letang · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 6:00VANBo HorvatAssists: Ben Hutton, Luca Sbisa · Snap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 7:16PITEvgeni MalkinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 10:22PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Phil Kessel, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 13:00PITBryan RustAssists: Tom Kuhnhackl · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–4
- P3 18:37PITSidney CrosbyENGWGAssists: Carl Hagelin, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.77 xG3–5
- P3 19:43VANJannik HansenAssists: Michael Zalewski, Ben Hutton · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:51VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:56VANMichael Zalewski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:48VANAlexandre Burrows: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:43VANMatt Bartkowski: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:30VANLuca Sbisa: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:24PITBrian Dumoulin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against McCann
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Baertschi – Horvat11:00
xG 0.44–0.10 (81%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Sedin – Hansen – McCann9:54
xG 0.55–0.25 (69%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Dorsett – Zalewski – Virtanen8:14
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Burrows – Vey – Etem11:03
xG 0.53–1.04 (34%)attempts 7–18goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Hutton13:19
xG 1.01–0.22 (82%)attempts 16–8goals 3–1
- Edler – Tanev16:04
xG 0.29–0.44 (39%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Biega – Bartkowski12:11
xG 0.43–0.66 (40%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Hagelin13:11
xG 0.71–0.50 (59%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Cullen – Crosby – Hornqvist8:59
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 0–2
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Bennett2:43
xG 0.03–0.17 (13%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Fehr – Rust – Kuhnhackl10:05
xG 0.26–0.67 (28%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Dumoulin12:57
xG 0.59–0.40 (59%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
- Lovejoy – Dumoulin4:50
xG 0.26–0.12 (68%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Daley – Pouliot3:21
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).