Sat, Jan 23, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Minnesota Wild 3, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 210 | 08 | 110 | 328 |
| SJS | 19 | 214 | 110 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:33SJSTomas HertlAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 13:00MINChris PorterAssists: Marco Scandella, Erik Haula · Slap, 0.26 xG1–1
- P1 19:36MINCharlie CoylePPAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Jared Spurgeon · Slap, 0.36 xG2–1
- P2 12:20SJSJoonas DonskoiPPAssists: Joel Ward, Joe Pavelski · Slap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 13:58SJSJoel WardAssists: Logan Couture, Joonas Donskoi · Slap, 0.28 xG2–3
- P3 12:10MINJarret StollAssists: Jonas Brodin, Marco Scandella · Slap, 0.27 xG3–3
- P3 18:36SJSJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:34SJSMelker Karlsson: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 13:16MINNino Niederreiter: Holding2 min
- P1 17:59SJSJoel Ward: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:39MINMarco Scandella: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:59MINJared Spurgeon: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:23SJSJoe Thornton: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Marleau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Schroeder – Haula5:10
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Stoll – Vanek – Zucker11:12
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Koivu – Coyle – Niederreiter12:21
xG 0.09–0.67 (12%)attempts 4–8goals 0–2
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund12:04
xG 0.11–1.21 (8%)attempts 10–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Brodin7:34
xG 0.63–0.24 (73%)attempts 10–6goals 2–1
- Scandella – Prosser6:39
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon17:45
xG 0.19–0.39 (32%)attempts 14–20goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Hertl11:51
xG 0.79–0.04 (95%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Couture – Wingels – Donskoi9:25
xG 0.13–0.03 (82%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Brown – Tierney – Karlsson2:52
xG 0.01–0.01 (40%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Marleau – Ward – Nieto11:25
xG 0.56–0.87 (39%)attempts 16–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Burns15:15
xG 1.54–0.24 (87%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun13:15
xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Braun – Dillon2:47
xG 0.24–0.04 (85%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).