Sat, Jan 23, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Anaheim Ducks 4, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 213 | 013 | 29 | 435 |
| DET | 19 | 110 | 18 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:10DETDarren HelmAssists: Brendan Smith, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 7:26ANARyan KeslerAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P1 18:36ANACorey PerryAssists: Rickard Rakell, David Perron · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 9:21DETTomas JurcoAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Brendan Smith · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 2:28ANACorey PerryAssists: Rickard Rakell, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 6:42ANARyan KeslerGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 18:44DETDanny DeKeyserAssists: Teemu Pulkkinen, Tomas Tatar · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:31DETDanny DeKeyser: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:50DETBrendan Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:03ANADavid Perron: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:07ANADavid Perron: Holding2 min
- P2 10:44DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:52DETMike Green: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:03ANAJakob Silfverberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:33ANARickard Rakell: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Stewart – Perron10:24
xG 0.58–0.01 (98%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg8:09
xG 0.56–0.14 (80%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Perry – Maroon – Rakell7:31
xG 0.24–0.36 (40%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Horcoff – Thompson – Garbutt6:46
xG 0.04–0.35 (10%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Manson3:19
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Vatanen4:55
xG 0.40–0.02 (96%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Lindholm3:48
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Helm – Nyquist5:06
xG 0.35–0.11 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan3:53
xG 0.11–0.02 (87%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader2:39
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Larkin2:47
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Smith12:32
xG 0.59–0.50 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 2–1
- Quincey – DeKeyser13:50
xG 0.32–0.70 (32%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Ericsson – Marchenko12:12
xG 0.02–0.50 (4%)attempts 1–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).