Sat, Jan 23, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Los Angeles Kings 2, Arizona Coyotes 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 05 | 212 | 011 | 228 |
| ARI | 113 | 16 | 15 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:43ARIShane DoanAssists: Michael Stone, Tobias Rieder · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 6:53LAKNicholas ShoreUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 9:19ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Max Domi, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 16:55LAKDustin BrownAssists: Jeff Carter, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–2
- P3 0:22ARIJordan MartinookGWGAssists: Shane Doan, Brad Richardson · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:06ARIConnor Murphy: Holding2 min
- P1 11:29LAKChristian Ehrhoff: Holding2 min
- P2 7:49LAKLuke Schenn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:41LAKTrevor Lewis: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:09LAKJeff Carter: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:44ARIZbynek Michalek: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:55LAKMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:55LAKMilan Lucic: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 6:55ARIKevin Connauton: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Gaborik – Lewis7:40
xG 0.26–0.03 (90%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Brown – King9:41
xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Lucic – Toffoli9:52
xG 0.08–0.38 (18%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Andreoff – Shore – Pearson7:13
xG 0.05–0.45 (10%)attempts 2–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Schenn9:17
xG 0.74–0.32 (70%)attempts 16–5goals 2–0
- Muzzin – Doughty6:01
xG 0.18–0.14 (55%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Martinez – Schenn2:39
xG 0.03–0.09 (25%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Boedker – Rieder8:35
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Tikhonov – Domi8:50
xG 0.12–0.04 (75%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Gordon – Chipchura – Duclair5:34
xG 0.02–0.05 (31%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Gordon – Chipchura – Tikhonov2:55
xG 0.01–0.05 (17%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Tinordi12:43
xG 0.50–0.21 (70%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy16:48
xG 0.39–0.12 (77%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Stone – Connauton13:00
xG 0.22–0.79 (22%)attempts 11–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).