Tue, Mar 1, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 113 | 110 | 07 | 230 |
| WSH | 010 | 216 | 111 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:14PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Carl Hagelin, Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 3:45PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Olli Maatta, Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 4:24WSHTom WilsonAssists: Mike Richards, Nate Schmidt · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 16:03WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Justin Williams, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–2
- P3 13:38WSHT.J. OshiePPGWGAssists: Matt Niskanen, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:55PITChris Kunitz: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:30WSHKarl Alzner: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:01PITPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:23WSHJason Chimera: Embellishment2 min
- P2 5:23PITKris Letang: Holding2 min
- P2 6:52PITIan Cole: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:52WSHDmitry Orlov: Embellishment2 min
- P2 11:50WSHDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:45PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Rust – Kuhnhackl10:43
xG 1.19–0.41 (74%)attempts 22–6goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin11:47
xG 0.47–0.48 (50%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Porter – Bonino – Wilson5:27
xG 0.06–0.50 (10%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist14:04
xG 0.34–1.23 (21%)attempts 11–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Pouliot10:47
xG 0.69–0.35 (66%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Daley – Dumoulin15:54
xG 0.42–0.94 (31%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
- Letang – Maatta18:19
xG 0.50–1.37 (27%)attempts 19–15goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky10:14
xG 1.18–0.65 (65%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Chimera – Richards – Wilson2:43
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Beagle – Johansson – Galiev2:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Richards – Beagle – Galiev3:38
xG 0.04–0.06 (42%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner16:20
xG 1.04–0.47 (69%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Orpik – Orlov13:41
xG 0.87–0.39 (69%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Weber – Schmidt11:05
xG 0.51–0.34 (60%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).