Sun, Jan 24, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Calgary Flames 2, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 112 | 115 | 235 |
| CAR | 214 | 112 | 210 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:26CARVictor RaskUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 17:27CARElias LindholmUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 3:50CARKris VersteegGWGAssists: Eric Staal, Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 11:15CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Mark Giordano, Joe Colborne · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 5:01CGYJoe ColborneAssists: Markus Granlund, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 11:13CARKris VersteegPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Jordan Staal · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–4
- P3 11:45CARJoakim NordstromAssists: Jordan Staal, Andrej Nestrasil · Snap, 0.20 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:17CARBrad Malone: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:56CARBrad Malone: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:27CGYKris Russell: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P1 19:16CGYJiri Hudler: Holding2 min
- P2 7:30CARMichal Jordan: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:50CARKris Versteeg: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:39CGYMichael Frolik: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:48CARMichal Jordan: Interference2 min
- P3 9:35CGYDavid Jones: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 14:51CGYDennis Wideman: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:07CGYMatt Stajan: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Colborne – Granlund4:16
xG 0.77–0.27 (74%)attempts 7–8goals 1–2
- Stajan – Bouma – Jooris8:18
xG 1.07–0.62 (63%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Jones – Gaudreau – Monahan6:06
xG 0.63–0.31 (67%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Bennett11:24
xG 0.63–0.46 (58%)attempts 20–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie9:58
xG 1.55–0.51 (75%)attempts 18–12goals 1–2
- Russell – Brodie3:04
xG 0.48–0.19 (71%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Smid – Hamilton4:13
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Staal – Versteeg – Di Giuseppe10:22
xG 0.48–0.49 (50%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom9:20
xG 0.85–0.92 (48%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- McClement – Terry – Malone5:33
xG 0.19–0.52 (27%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm7:10
xG 0.14–0.94 (13%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Slavin11:17
xG 1.52–1.08 (58%)attempts 24–16goals 2–1
- Hainsey – Hanifin2:08
xG 0.07–0.15 (30%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Jordan – Hanifin10:02
xG 0.51–0.72 (42%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).