Tue, Jan 26, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Arizona Coyotes 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 010 | 114 | 110 | 234 |
| WPG | 211 | 314 | 012 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:55WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 13:53WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.25 xG0–2
- P2 6:00WPGDustin ByfuglienGWGAssists: Chris Thorburn · Slap, 0.01 xG0–3
- P2 14:31WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.11 xG0–4
- P2 15:40ARIBrad RichardsonAssists: Jordan Martinook · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–4
- P2 17:43WPGDustin ByfuglienSHAssists: Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.00 xG1–5
- P3 19:43ARIAnthony DuclairAssists: Martin Hanzal · Slap, 0.29 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:11ARIMichael Stone: Holding2 min
- P1 4:12ARIJarred Tinordi: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 4:12WPGAnthony Peluso: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:30ARIMichael Stone: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:37WPGNikolaj Ehlers: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:07WPGBen Chiarot: Holding2 min
- P2 16:22WPGJacob Trouba: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:54WPGAnthony Peluso: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:45ARIMichael Stone: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:13WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:57ARIAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Burmistrov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHanzal – Duclair – Domi10:03
xG 0.90–0.41 (69%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Doan – Richardson – Martinook11:17
xG 1.00–0.57 (64%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Gordon – Chipchura – Thomas9:07
xG 0.23–0.60 (28%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Vermette – Boedker – Rieder8:29
xG 0.20–0.66 (23%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Murphy15:08
xG 0.96–0.35 (73%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Connauton – Tinordi3:49
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Grossmann – Tinordi7:33
xG 0.50–0.50 (50%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers10:35
xG 0.89–0.07 (93%)attempts 17–6goals 2–0
- Ladd – Stafford – Little10:54
xG 0.75–0.51 (59%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Peluso – Halischuk – Copp7:00
xG 0.02–0.17 (12%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Burmistrov – Armia10:06
xG 0.81–1.24 (39%)attempts 10–17goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba3:39
xG 0.87–0.03 (97%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Trouba9:31
xG 0.45–0.31 (60%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot5:26
xG 0.01–0.12 (10%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).