Tue, Jan 26, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 1, San Jose Sharks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 05 | 111 | 122 |
| SJS | 29 | 211 | 24 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:19SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Brent Burns, Chris Tierney · Deflected, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 10:13SJSTomas HertlGWGAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Joe Thornton · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 15:28SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 16:18SJSJoel WardPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.60 xG0–4
- P3 8:21SJSPaul MartinENAssists: Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.58 xG0–5
- P3 11:35COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Alex Tanguay, Erik Johnson · Slap, 0.07 xG1–5
- P3 19:03SJSDylan DeMeloPPAssists: Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–6
Penalties (14)
- P1 19:54COLCody McLeod: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:21SJSBrenden Dillon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:43COLAndreas Martinsen: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:35COLFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:35COLAndreas Martinsen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:11SJSLogan Couture: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:33SJSBrent Burns: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:48SJSJustin Braun: Interference2 min
- P3 7:13SJSTomas Hertl: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:13COLErik Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:28SJSTomas Hertl: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:51COLJohn Mitchell: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:51COLCody McLeod: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:03COLJohn Mitchell: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Marleau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Wagner – Martinsen11:06
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Mitchell – McLeod – Skille9:18
xG 0.20–0.04 (84%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Landeskog7:55
xG 0.12–0.25 (33%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Duchene – MacKinnon8:26
xG 0.03–0.77 (4%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Barrie13:12
xG 0.65–0.23 (74%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Barrie2:31
xG 0.07–0.10 (42%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Redmond – Bigras10:57
xG 0.13–0.28 (32%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Wingels – Donskoi8:46
xG 0.73–0.14 (84%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl9:46
xG 0.64–0.30 (68%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Zubrus – Tierney – Karlsson9:06
xG 0.11–0.10 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Marleau – Ward – Nieto8:24
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun11:05
xG 1.33–0.16 (89%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Martin – Burns14:40
xG 0.32–0.55 (37%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Dillon – DeMelo12:29
xG 0.08–0.33 (20%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).