Wed, Feb 3, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Buffalo Sabres 4, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 111 | 010 | 311 | 432 |
| MTL | 012 | 29 | 014 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:10BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 3:19MTLDale WeisePPAssists: Max Pacioretty, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 11:04MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Tomas Plekanec · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 7:34BUFJamie McGinnPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Jack Eichel · Tip-in, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 11:46BUFJohan LarssonGWGAssists: Jake McCabe, Cody Franson · Tip-in, 0.36 xG3–2
- P3 19:47BUFBrian GiontaENAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.47 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:00BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:11BUFJohan Larsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:08MTLTomas Plekanec: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:02MTLTomas Fleischmann: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:00MTLTom Gilbert: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Kane – Larsson10:47
xG 0.88–0.05 (95%)attempts 21–5goals 1–0
- Legwand – Moulson – Deslauriers5:48
xG 0.01–0.13 (9%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Reinhart12:00
xG 0.28–0.47 (38%)attempts 15–19goals 0–1
- Foligno – Girgensons – Eichel9:53
xG 0.36–0.65 (36%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – McCabe13:08
xG 0.60–0.09 (87%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen15:29
xG 0.57–0.62 (48%)attempts 17–21goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Pysyk17:25
xG 0.27–0.83 (24%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk11:25
xG 0.94–0.37 (72%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Weise12:14
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Fleischmann – Eller – Andrighetto11:15
xG 0.03–0.07 (30%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Smith-Pelly – Flynn7:29
xG 0.16–0.32 (33%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban16:12
xG 0.96–0.33 (74%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Emelin – Petry14:56
xG 0.14–0.47 (23%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Gilbert – Beaulieu16:10
xG 0.44–0.77 (36%)attempts 20–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).