Thu, Feb 4, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New Jersey Devils 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 111 | 011 | 110 | 02 | 0 | 234 |
| TOR | 114 | 014 | 18 | 03 | 1 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:16NJDJacob JosefsonPPAssists: David Schlemko, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 8:34TORShawn MatthiasAssists: Tyler Bozak, PA Parenteau · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P3 6:27NJDDavid SchlemkoAssists: Eric Gelinas, Joseph Blandisi · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 17:54TORTyler BozakAssists: Peter Holland, Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TOR Peter Holland stopped
- 2. NJD Reid Boucher stopped
- 3. TOR PA Parenteau scored
- 4. NJD Jacob Josefson stopped
- 5. TOR Tyler Bozak stopped
- 6. NJD Lee Stempniak stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:07TORMatt Hunwick: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 6:31NJDTravis Zajac: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:54NJDBobby Farnham: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:25TORRoman Polak: Holding2 min
- P2 5:55NJDAdam Henrique: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:37TORShawn Matthias: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:17TORFrank Corrado: Interference2 min
- P2 19:44TORPA Parenteau: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:45NJDAdam Henrique: Interference2 min
- P3 13:46TORMichael Grabner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Gionta – Farnham7:08
xG 0.45–0.06 (88%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Josefson – Boucher4:47
xG 0.11–0.12 (46%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Boucher5:13
xG 0.07–0.14 (33%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Henrique – Blandisi8:24
xG 0.31–0.67 (31%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Helgeson9:48
xG 0.68–0.23 (74%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Gelinas7:17
xG 0.44–0.31 (59%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Schlemko – Moore3:01
xG 0.03–0.25 (11%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Winnik – Bozak12:11
xG 0.69–0.07 (91%)attempts 26–6goals 0–0
- Komarov – Grabner – Kadri10:57
xG 0.64–0.03 (95%)attempts 17–2goals 0–0
- Lupul – Matthias – Spaling4:36
xG 0.05–0.31 (14%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Clune – Holland – Froese5:24
xG 0.09–0.37 (20%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Rielly11:05
xG 0.66–0.06 (92%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Polak – Gardiner10:58
xG 0.50–0.30 (62%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Rielly2:04
xG 0.02–0.04 (29%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).