Thu, Feb 4, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Arizona Coyotes 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 05 | 316 | 115 | 14 | 540 |
| ARI | 17 | 211 | 17 | 03 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:12ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Martin Hanzal, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 2:53CHIMarian HossaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 4:00CHIJonathan ToewsSHAssists: Marian Hossa, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 12:26ARIMikkel BoedkerPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 12:35ARIJordan MartinookAssists: Brad Richardson, Viktor Tikhonov · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 14:10CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 7:18CHIMichal RozsivalAssists: Artem Anisimov, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 11:30ARIShane DoanAssists: Jordan Martinook, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG4–4
- OT 4:31CHIJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Brent Seabrook, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.23 xG5–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:57ARIBrad Richardson: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:40CHIRichard Panik: Bench2 min · PPG
- P1 18:23ARIViktor Tikhonov: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:33CHIDuncan Keith: Holding2 min
- P2 9:26ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:45CHIAndrew Shaw: Charging2 min · PPG
- P2 10:45CHIAndrew Shaw: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:45ARIZbynek Michalek: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:16CHIPhillip Danault: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:40ARIMartin Hanzal: Holding2 min
- P3 6:45CHIMarian Hossa: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:45ARIShane Doan: Cross checking2 min
- OT 4:31ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDesjardins – Danault – Teravainen7:54
xG 0.53–0.04 (93%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin10:35
xG 0.44–0.09 (83%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Mashinter – Panik – Rasmussen5:07
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Hossa – Toews – Shaw10:19
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson16:33
xG 0.59–0.20 (75%)attempts 20–8goals 1–1
- Seabrook – Gustafsson6:25
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Seabrook – van Riemsdyk3:29
xG 0.18–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Doan – Richardson – Martinook11:18
xG 0.20–0.32 (38%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Vermette – Boedker – Rieder10:12
xG 0.10–0.38 (21%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Gordon – Chipchura – Tikhonov5:40
xG 0.03–0.40 (7%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
- Hanzal – Duclair – Domi8:24
xG 0.07–0.47 (12%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy13:15
xG 0.39–0.46 (46%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
- Stone – Connauton16:11
xG 0.26–0.57 (31%)attempts 10–21goals 1–1
- Michalek – Dahlbeck11:35
xG 0.06–0.64 (9%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).