Fri, Feb 5, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 112 | 19 | 19 | 330 |
| TBL | 25 | 211 | 213 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:53PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Chris Kunitz, Derrick Pouliot · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 11:50TBLAnton StralmanAssists: Tyler Johnson, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 18:34TBLAlex KillornAssists: Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 6:04TBLOndrej PalatSHAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 8:04PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 9:15TBLTyler JohnsonPPGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 0:55PITMatt CullenAssists: Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 15:55TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Steven Stamkos, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–5
- P3 17:56TBLAnton StralmanENAssists: Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.47 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:56PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:26TBLJason Garrison: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:07PITMatt Cullen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:27TBLErik Condra: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:41TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist13:48
xG 0.73–0.10 (88%)attempts 19–7goals 2–0
- Porter – Wilson – Sheary9:32
xG 0.11–0.03 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Rust – Kuhnhackl – Sundqvist9:47
xG 0.23–0.31 (43%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Cullen – Kessel – Hagelin12:44
xG 0.35–1.02 (26%)attempts 13–16goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- Daley – Dumoulin14:23
xG 0.58–0.62 (48%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Letang – Maatta16:21
xG 0.38–0.45 (46%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Lovejoy – Pouliot11:43
xG 0.39–0.53 (43%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Palat – Namestnikov12:57
xG 0.48–0.29 (62%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Kucherov11:36
xG 0.51–0.35 (60%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Brown11:07
xG 0.49–0.36 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Boyle – Condra – Paquette9:03
xG 0.04–0.11 (26%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Sustr12:42
xG 0.72–0.50 (59%)attempts 11–14goals 2–2
- Stralman – Hedman10:41
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Coburn – Hedman6:02
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).