Fri, Feb 5, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
Arizona Coyotes 2, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 16 | 111 | 08 | 225 |
| ANA | 014 | 213 | 314 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34ARITobias RiederAssists: Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 4:00ANAHampus LindholmAssists: Rickard Rakell, Patrick Maroon · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 5:06ANAMike SantorelliUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 14:55ARIShane DoanPPAssists: Antoine Vermette, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Backhand, 0.33 xG2–2
- P3 2:07ANACorey PerryGWGAssists: Rickard Rakell, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 3:48ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Ryan Kesler · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 16:25ANAPatrick MaroonPPAssists: Ryan Kesler, Sami Vatanen · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:33ARIMichael Stone: Holding2 min
- P1 10:38ANAChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:25ANAPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:35ARIMikkel Boedker: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:26ARIConnor Murphy: Holding2 min
- P2 1:57ARIAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:56ANACam Fowler: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:38ANASami Vatanen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:34ANAKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:41ARIBrad Richardson: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:59ARIMartin Hanzal: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:54ARIMartin Hanzal: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Richardson – Martinook9:18
xG 0.41–0.11 (79%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Boedker – Domi7:28
xG 0.27–0.20 (58%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Vermette – Rieder – Duclair5:20
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Hanzal – Duclair – Domi3:26
xG 0.06–0.18 (25%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Michalek – Tinordi11:00
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 5–15goals 1–1
- Stone – Connauton10:04
xG 0.21–0.49 (30%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy12:56
xG 0.28–0.69 (29%)attempts 12–18goals 0–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Santorelli – Garbutt10:04
xG 0.86–0.18 (83%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Stewart – Perron6:39
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Rakell7:57
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg9:09
xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm11:20
xG 0.82–0.43 (66%)attempts 19–7goals 1–1
- Despres – Vatanen9:44
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Fowler8:44
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).