Sat, Feb 6, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 07 | 08 | 211 | 02 | 2 | 328 |
| PHI | 07 | 120 | 11 | 00 | 0 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:16PHIShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 3:16NYRChris KreiderAssists: Dan Girardi, Mats Zuccarello · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 5:46PHIRyan WhiteAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Chris VandeVelde · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 19:47NYRKeith YandleAssists: Jesper Fast, Dan Boyle · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PHI Sam Gagner stopped
- 2. NYR Mats Zuccarello scored
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. NYR Derek Stepan scored
Penalties (13)
- P1 10:36PHIWayne Simmonds: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P1 10:36PHIWayne Simmonds: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 10:36NYRRyan McDonagh: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:36NYRRyan McDonagh: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:52NYRViktor Stalberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:46NYRJesper Fast: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:17NYRDominic Moore: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:49NYROscar Lindberg: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:49PHIMatt Read: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:49NYROscar Lindberg: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:05PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min
- OT 4:14NYRKeith Yandle: Holding2 min
- OT 4:14PHIMichael Del Zotto: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Kreider – Zuccarello5:35
xG 0.17–0.03 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello5:23
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Stepan – Hayes – Miller6:52
xG 0.09–0.05 (64%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Moore – Paille – Glass5:48
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Staal5:23
xG 0.28–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Klein – Yandle5:45
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Boyle – Yandle9:14
xG 0.20–0.07 (74%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Simmonds3:14
xG 0.28–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Voracek – Read – Laughton5:08
xG 0.21–0.05 (81%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Read – Laughton – Raffl2:36
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare8:30
xG 0.13–0.13 (51%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Gudas3:21
xG 0.31–0.04 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Gostisbehere13:04
xG 0.90–0.70 (56%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Gudas – Medvedev10:57
xG 0.32–0.15 (67%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).