Sat, Feb 6, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
New York Islanders 1, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 09 | 110 | 129 |
| DET | 25 | 212 | 13 | 520 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:25DETTomas JurcoAssists: Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 18:03DETKyle QuinceyGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 7:32DETMike GreenPPAssists: Brad Richards, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 10:20DETTomas TatarAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Gustav Nyquist · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–4
- P3 2:56DETDylan LarkinAssists: Brad Richards, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–5
- P3 4:07NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Nick Leddy · Slap, 0.04 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:12DETTomas Tatar: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:46NYIBrock Nelson: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:46DETMike Green: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:45DETDanny DeKeyser: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:36NYICalvin de Haan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:13NYIJohnny Boychuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:50DETRiley Sheahan: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:18DETBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:10NYIMatt Martin: Boarding2 min
- P3 11:44DETTomas Tatar: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGrabovski – Kulemin – Strome2:30
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Okposo – Tavares – Nelson2:06
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Bailey – Lee2:08
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Kulemin7:23
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy12:19
xG 0.30–0.03 (90%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Hickey11:47
xG 0.19–0.33 (37%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Hamonic – de Haan16:24
xG 0.30–0.53 (36%)attempts 13–16goals 0–2
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Tatar – Athanasiou6:19
xG 0.42–0.07 (85%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Sheahan – Jurco – Glendening6:49
xG 0.13–0.05 (73%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Richards – Helm – Larkin7:10
xG 0.16–0.16 (49%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader11:10
xG 0.19–0.25 (44%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Marchenko2:12
xG 0.12–0.02 (84%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser13:07
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Green – DeKeyser2:21
xG 0.08–0.06 (58%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).