Sat, Feb 6, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 1, Boston Bruins 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 010 | 116 | 011 | 01 | 138 |
| BOS | 113 | 013 | 010 | 12 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:22BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: David Pastrnak, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 10:53BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Jamie McGinn, Ryan O'Reilly · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- OT 2:32BOSBrad MarchandGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:34BOSTorey Krug: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:34BUFMark Pysyk: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:12BUFEvander Kane: Elbowing2 min
- P1 19:13BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:24BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:24BUFBrian Gionta: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:47BOSDennis Seidenberg: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:32BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Talbot won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – O'Reilly – Reinhart10:51
xG 0.78–0.38 (67%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Moulson – Girgensons – Eichel8:57
xG 0.27–0.34 (44%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Legwand – Deslauriers – Catenacci5:16
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Gionta – Kane – Larsson10:42
xG 0.48–0.86 (36%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Ristolainen14:43
xG 1.02–0.50 (67%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Franson – Weber3:35
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Gorges – Pysyk2:11
xG 0.09–0.11 (46%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Connolly12:06
xG 0.78–0.37 (68%)attempts 19–7goals 0–1
- Eriksson – Krejci – Pastrnak12:25
xG 0.59–0.42 (59%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Beleskey – Hayes – Spooner10:33
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Ferraro6:44
xG 0.01–0.20 (5%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug14:51
xG 0.89–0.53 (63%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Morrow12:11
xG 0.51–0.67 (43%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Chara – Trotman15:05
xG 0.39–0.59 (40%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).