Sat, Feb 6, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Florida Panthers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 09 | 09 | 211 | 16 | 335 |
| FLA | 020 | 114 | 110 | 00 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:03FLAJussi JokinenPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 9:15FLAAleksander BarkovSHAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 14:56PITKris LetangAssists: Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 18:45PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Kris Letang, Trevor Daley · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 1:27PITKris LetangPPGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Trevor Daley · Slap, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:48PITCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:29PITOlli Maatta: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:10PITTrevor Daley: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:15FLANick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:24PITBen Lovejoy: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:24FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
- P3 3:33FLAJaromir Jagr: Interference2 min
- P3 6:15PITSidney Crosby: Holding2 min
- P3 9:04FLADerek MacKenzie: Hooking2 min
- OT 0:08FLAJussi Jokinen: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Hagelin – Rust6:58
xG 0.32–0.06 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist14:26
xG 0.64–0.55 (54%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Porter – Kessel – Wilson3:47
xG 0.07–0.02 (75%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Rust – Kuhnhackl – Sundqvist3:00
xG 0.08–0.04 (68%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Pouliot5:30
xG 0.43–0.04 (92%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Dumoulin3:55
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Daley – Pouliot2:51
xG 0.05–0.05 (51%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestThornton – MacKenzie – Howden6:46
xG 0.12–0.00 (98%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Pirri – Bjugstad – Shaw5:07
xG 0.14–0.09 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov9:53
xG 0.15–0.29 (34%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck10:03
xG 0.25–0.65 (28%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kulikov – Petrovic2:46
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Ekblad14:46
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Kampfer – Regner11:46
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).