Sat, Feb 6, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
San Jose Sharks 2, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 010 | 111 | 19 | 230 |
| NSH | 17 | 28 | 315 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:12NSHJames NealAssists: Ryan Johansen, Barret Jackman · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 6:26NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 15:41SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 17:01NSHViktor ArvidssonGWGAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Filip Forsberg · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 6:51NSHFilip ForsbergSHAssists: Shea Weber · Snap, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 8:44NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Filip Forsberg, Mike Ribeiro · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 13:37SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Joe Thornton, Dylan DeMelo · Slap, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 15:23NSHShea WeberENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.53 xG2–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:13NSHMiikka Salomaki: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:57NSHRyan Ellis: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:57SJSTommy Wingels: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:49NSHAustin Watson: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:08SJSBrent Burns: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:49NSHMattias Ekholm: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:47SJSBrenden Dillon: Holding2 min
- P3 5:16NSHCody Bass: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:38NSHShea Weber: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Wingels – Donskoi8:59
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Tierney – Karlsson8:32
xG 0.16–0.15 (51%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl9:08
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Marleau – Ward – Nieto10:27
xG 0.14–0.30 (32%)attempts 3–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – DeMelo8:02
xG 0.26–0.08 (75%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Martin – Braun3:38
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Burns – Dillon2:06
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Forsberg – Arvidsson10:25
xG 0.56–0.08 (88%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Johansen9:42
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Gaustad – Bass – Watson8:05
xG 0.07–0.05 (60%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Fisher – Smith – Salomaki7:50
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi13:08
xG 0.60–0.32 (65%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Ellis – Ekholm14:05
xG 0.81–0.56 (59%)attempts 11–15goals 2–0
- Jackman – Bitetto12:39
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).