Fri, Feb 12, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Carolina Hurricanes 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 08 | 19 | 05 | 04 | 1 | 226 |
| CAR | 013 | 07 | 18 | 02 | 0 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:43PITPhil KesselAssists: Matt Cullen, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 14:42CARAndrej NestrasilAssists: Joakim Nordstrom, John-Michael Liles · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. CAR Chris Terry stopped
- 2. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 3. CAR Phillip Di Giuseppe stopped
- 4. PIT Chris Kunitz stopped
- 5. CAR Elias Lindholm stopped
- 6. PIT Kris Letang scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:06PITPatric Hornqvist: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:32CARJohn-Michael Liles: Holding2 min
- P2 9:12PITTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:52PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Kessel – Hagelin14:04
xG 1.24–0.42 (75%)attempts 23–17goals 1–0
- Rust – Kuhnhackl – Sundqvist8:43
xG 0.09–0.42 (18%)attempts 2–15goals 0–0
- Porter – Wilson – Sheary5:04
xG 0.11–0.49 (19%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist13:55
xG 0.41–0.85 (33%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Dumoulin14:26
xG 0.98–0.77 (56%)attempts 18–19goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Pouliot11:52
xG 0.12–0.50 (20%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
- Letang – Maatta16:39
xG 0.20–0.88 (18%)attempts 8–21goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Rask – Di Giuseppe6:38
xG 0.54–0.09 (86%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm5:15
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Versteeg – Lindholm9:41
xG 0.50–0.40 (56%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Staal – Versteeg – Di Giuseppe3:38
xG 0.02–0.06 (23%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJordan – Hanifin13:33
xG 0.60–0.37 (62%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Liles – Pesce17:41
xG 1.00–0.88 (53%)attempts 27–13goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Slavin17:05
xG 0.64–0.69 (48%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).